@MastersThesis{Oliveira:2011:AnTePr,
author = "Oliveira, R{\^o}mulo Augusto Juc{\'a}",
title = "An{\'a}lises das tend{\^e}ncias da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o
sobre o Brasil e impactos do desmatamento no regime de chuvas na
Amaz{\^o}nia Legal",
school = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais",
year = "2011",
address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
month = "2011-10-04",
keywords = "tend{\^e}ncias da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, Brasil, desmatamento,
Amaz{\^o}nia Legal, estimativa de precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o,
trends of preciptation, Brazil, deforestation, Legal Amazon,
rainfall estimation.",
abstract = "Este trabalho, de car{\'a}ter observacional, tem como objetivo,
inicialmente, analisar as tend{\^e}ncias, durante o
per{\'{\i}}odo de 1979 a 2009, em tr{\^e}s
caracter{\'{\i}}sticas da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, tais como
acumulada, freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia e intensidade m{\'e}dia de dias
chuvosos (separados por classes), anualmente e sazonalmente, sobre
os grandes centros urbanos do Brasil, representados pelas capitais
estaduais. Foram utilizados os testes de signific{\^a}ncia
n{\~a}o param{\'e}tricos de Mann-Kendall e as estimativas de
inclina{\c{c}}{\~a}o pelo m{\'e}todo Sen. Na segunda parte do
trabalho, com o uso da mesma metodologia implantada anteriormente,
com respeito a precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, s{\~a}o investigadas as
poss{\'{\i}}veis associa{\c{c}}{\~o}es entre o desmatamento,
atrav{\'e}s das estimativas do Projeto PRODES, e a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o, atrav{\'e}s das estimativas do
sat{\'e}lite TRMM (3B42_V6), sobre a Amaz{\^o}nia Legal durante
o per{\'{\i}}odo de 1998 a 2009. As an{\'a}lises (regionais)
s{\~a}o focadas sobre {\'A}reas, com elevadas taxas anuais de
desmatamento, onde s{\~a}o analisadas as caracter{\'{\i}}sticas
da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o e suas poss{\'{\i}}veis
tend{\^e}ncias e/ou mudan{\c{c}}as. Sabe-se que a
precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o pode ser alterada, quer por uma
mudan{\c{c}}a na distribui{\c{c}}{\~a}o das intensidades, ou
por uma mudan{\c{c}}a no n{\'u}mero de dias chuvosos ou por uma
combina{\c{c}}{\~a}o de ambos. Sendo assim, os totais
di{\'a}rios foram organizados desde os eventos mais fracos
at{\'e} os mais intensos, separados em 10 Classes de quantidade
(com cada 10\%), por ano e esta{\c{c}}{\~a}o do ano, tanto na
Parte I, referente {\`a}s cidades, quanto na Parte II, para as
{\'a}reas desmatadas. Foram detectadas sobre grande parte das
cidades brasileiras e {\'a}reas desmatadas na Amaz{\^o}nia
tend{\^e}ncias de aumento nos totais anuais, principalmente
devido ao trimestre MAM. Em SON foram presenciadas tend{\^e}ncias
de aumentos em seus acumulados, devido principalmente a aumentos
na intensidade e freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia de dias chuvosos,
principalmente na Classe 10. No entanto, neste trimestre, para
Amaz{\^o}nia foram identificadas bastantes redu{\c{c}}{\~o}es,
tanto sobre as cidades, durante o per{\'{\i}}odo de 1979 a 2009,
quanto sobre as {\'A}reas, na segunda parte do estudo, para o
per{\'{\i}}odo de 1998 a 2009. Sendo que, sobre as {\'a}reas
foram identificadas que as sub-{\'a}reas desmatadas apresentaram
tend{\^e}ncias de redu{\c{c}}{\~o}es significativas
estatisticamente e mais representativa que as sub-{\'a}reas de
floresta, apresentando tamb{\'e}m maiores
contribui{\c{c}}{\~o}es da Classe 10 para os totais
sazonais/anuais. Desta forma, estudos que visam analises de
freq{\"u}{\^e}ncia e intensidade da precipita{\c{c}}{\~a}o,
corroboram no entendimento n{\~a}o s{\'o} da
caracteriza{\c{c}}{\~a}o das chuva, mas tamb{\'e}m fornecendo
subs{\'{\i}}dios para um melhor entendimento do clima da
regi{\~a}o atual, que {\'e} fundamental para o estudo de
mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas e proje{\c{c}}{\~o}es futuras,
de atividades de uso do solo, entre outros, que est{\~a}o
diretamente ligados {\`a} sociedade. ABSTRACT: This observational
study aimed first to analyze trends in three precipitation
characteristics, including total precipitation, the number of wet
days and the average amount of precipitation on wet days
(separated by classes), annually and seasonally, in the major
urban centers of Brazil, represented by the capitals, during the
period from 1979 to 2009. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall
significance test and the Sens slope estimator method were used.
In the second part, the previously established methodology was
used to investigate possible associations between deforestation,
as estimated by the PRODES Project, and precipitation estimates
from the TRMM satellite (3B42_V6) in the Amazon during the period
from 1998 to 2009. Regional analyses of rainfall characteristics
and its possible trends and/or changes were focused on areas with
high annual deforestation rates. It is known that precipitation
can be modified either by changes in the intensity distribution or
the number of rainy days, or by a combination. Therefore, the
total daily events were organized from weakest to the most
intense, separated in 10 classes of quantity (each with 10\%) per
year and season, both referring to cities in Part I and for the
deforested areas in Part II. Upward trends in total annual
precipitation were found over much of Brazil's cities and
deforested areas in the Amazon, mainly due to the MAM season. In
SON, increasing trends in their totals were found, primarily due
to increases in intensity and frequency of wet days, especially in
Class 10. However, during this season in the Amazon, reductions
have been identified both in the cities during the period from
1979 to 2009 and in areas in the second part of the study for the
period from 1998 to 2009. In the areas, it was identified that the
deforested sub-areas tended to have statistically significant and
more representative reductions in precipitation than the forest
sub-areas, with a higher contribution from Class 10 to the
seasonal/annual totals. Thus, studies aimed at analysis of
precipitation frequency and intensity not only corroborate the
understanding of rainfall characterization, but also offer
suggestions for a better understanding of the current climate of
the region, which is fundamental to the study of climate change
and future projections of land use activities, among others, which
directly connected to impact society.",
committee = "Herdies, Dirceu Luis (presidente) and Angelis, Carlos Frederico de
(orientador) and Silva, Cl{\'a}udia Mois{\'e}s Santos e",
copyholder = "SID/SCD",
englishtitle = "Analysis of trends in precipitation over brazil and impacts of
deforestation on rainfall regimes in the Legal Amazon",
language = "pt",
pages = "120",
ibi = "8JMKD3MGP8W/3AU5T4P",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP8W/3AU5T4P",
targetfile = "publicacao.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "06 maio 2024"
}